tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24528000.post3702422866256691401..comments2023-10-28T12:01:47.929+00:00Comments on Edward Lucas: Daily Telegraph rant todayEdward Lucashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11369936559712607693noreply@blogger.comBlogger28125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24528000.post-52191711362034069052008-11-18T15:23:00.000+00:002008-11-18T15:23:00.000+00:00Dear aaThanks for your thoughtful comments. I am n...Dear aa<BR/><BR/>Thanks for your thoughtful comments. I am not sure that coverage of CEE is improved by the author being ignorant. If that's your taste, you can find plenty of news outlets where the articles are written by people with no specialist knowledge. The responsibility for the "extremists" is clearly with Estonia which will--given time--be able to catch and prosecute them. I would not say that the government "placated" these extremists in the Bronze soldier crisis and I would not say that the Estonian extreme right now is financed by Russia (and people are keeping a close eye on it to make sure). <BR/><BR/>I don't understand what you mean about the estonian govt living up to their obligations under article V? <BR/><BR/>I do think that things can wrong in Ukraine too, and it is more plausible in some respects than in the Baltic. But Russia may be wary of enraging Ukraine because it is a big country (remember the row over the Tuzla island a few years back). I am not saying that my Baltic scenario is likely; the point of the article is to argue that NATO needs to do more in the Baltic (and since that article was written, it has).<BR/><BR/>I am not saying that today's Russia is like Nazi Germany<BR/><BR/>I agree (and argue in my book) that the West's loss of moral authority makes life much easier for the Chekisty and the Kremlin. <BR/><BR/>happy to continue this offline if you want to email me (edwardlucas[at]economist.com)<BR/><BR/>regards<BR/>ELEdward Lucashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11369936559712607693noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24528000.post-1434401569747399182008-11-16T00:41:00.000+00:002008-11-16T00:41:00.000+00:00Michael Oakeshott once wrote about E.H. Carr that ...Michael Oakeshott once wrote about E.H. Carr that his interest in his subject-matter (Communist Russia) was so intense that in the end he came to identify himself way too strongly it, to the extent that his position as an historian was compromised. <BR/>I am afraid your position as an analyst is similarly compromised by your interest in the CEE states (the Baltics in particular).<BR/>Just two points:<BR/>1. Whose responsibility are the 'Estonian extremists' in your scenario? Russia's? EU? Or Estonian authorities' after all? If they choose placating these very extremists over controlling them (as it happened in the course of the 'Bronze soldier' crisis? perhaps they are living up to their obligations (explicit but also implicit) with regard to the Article 5 deal.<BR/>In any way, speaking strictly pragmatically, whom is easier for the EU to influence in this case: the Kremlin or Tallinn? Would 'forcing' Tallinn to sort out its own stuff be such a bad idea in this particular case? I don't think so...<BR/>2. You seem to be arguing on the 'domino theory' premise. "Appease Russia in Georgia and it will go for the Baltics" (strange that you do not mention Ukraine in this context).<BR/>The problem here is not that we cannot know for sure.<BR/>The problem is: whatever we know for sure is enough to lay bare the differences between today's Russia and Nazi Germany, so as to make 'appeasement argument' completely irrelevant.<BR/>Unlike Hitler's Germany Putin's Russia is NOT even trying to pretend that it is pursuing objectives legitimate from the standpoint of the current order. Therefore it makes little sense for the EU to meet Russia's legitimate demands so sas to prevent it from pursuing illegitimate ones (This was the true meaning of appeasement).<BR/>Russia does not like the current order as such and makes no secret of this.<BR/>Now, Russia's anti-status quo posture has been supported so far not so much by 'old' Europe's 'appeasement' as by US unconcealed scorn for international law and norms generally.<BR/>If we accept further that, unlike 'bewildered linguistic communities' of CEE (Kennan's phrase), EU has global responsibilities, we can ask the following question: IN a world where even the British Tories seem to prefer Obama to US neocons, is it not one of Europe's responsibilities to send signals not only to Russia but also to those who seem to believe that the louder you preach democracy (without actually practicing it) the more security guaranties you get?aahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12968568130528477412noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24528000.post-42857711711010870562008-11-09T12:32:00.000+00:002008-11-09T12:32:00.000+00:00I think dying out of the international enthusiasm ...I think dying out of the international enthusiasm for an independent investigation after Georgia's evidence was published in NYT is a great symptom of the desparation in western Europe to blame Georgia for getting invaded.<BR/><BR/>IMagine western leaders saying in 1939 Finland was guilty for getting invaded by the Soviet Union. Indeed, back then Russians had their own story that Finland bombarded Russian village of Mainila at the border. The difference is that few were reluctant to close eyes to the clear truth: RUssians bombed that village themselves to justify their invasion...Grigolhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07353742707182976203noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24528000.post-29730092888110532172008-11-09T00:45:00.000+00:002008-11-09T00:45:00.000+00:00The shameless lying by commenters on this thread s...The shameless lying by commenters on this thread should be embarrassing to Edward, and I'm sure it is.<BR/><BR/>The NYT report CLEARLY states that the the OSCE observers had NO systemmatic opportunity to observe the shelling. It is FULL of repeated statements that no conclusions can be drawn, and the source material is merely leaked statements, not an official OSCE report.<BR/><BR/>Meanwhile, Russia's "friends" choose to ignore all the findings, including by the OSCE, that Russia butchered civilians, and the NYT's own editorial clearly stating that the allegations reported in the article were "not surprising" and NO justification for Russia's invasion of Georgia proper.<BR/><BR/>http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/08/opinion/08sat2.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin<BR/><BR/>The pathetic mendacity of Russia's defenders in their abject panic over Russia's repudiation by the entire planet and the collapse of its economy would be amusing if not that so many Russians will suffer so much because of it, just as in Soviet times.<BR/><BR/>As always, with "friends" like these Russia needs no enemies.La Russophobehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05672264388217953086noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24528000.post-87501178736087990302008-11-08T23:37:00.000+00:002008-11-08T23:37:00.000+00:00Unfortunately this article is somewhat economical ...Unfortunately this article is somewhat economical with the truth and rather similar to the clumsy examples of paranoid propaganda of the failed neo-con policies - despite La Russophobe's best efforts to put a spin on it.<BR/><BR/>Their narrow minded "we're number one" mentality has long reached it's sell by date, with the national and international mess they are largely responsible for clearly crying out for a real world change in attitude and policy.<BR/> <BR/>The American people have responded with their resounding voting for that change as 85% believed the US was on the wrong track. Hopefully President Obama and a change of administration will help bring about a more realistic approach to the very real world social-economic and environmental problems we ALL face. We - and the media - mustn't shirk our responsibilities and miss this opportunity!dimitrioshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11885833591607553768noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24528000.post-32213769521864792142008-11-08T00:13:00.000+00:002008-11-08T00:13:00.000+00:00http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/07/world/europe/07g...http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/07/world/europe/07georgia.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin<BR/><BR/>Georgia Claims on Russia War Called Into Question <BR/><BR/>"During a news broadcast that began at 11 p.m., Georgia announced that Georgian villages were being shelled, and declared an operation “to restore constitutional order” in South Ossetia. The bombardment of Tskhinvali started soon after the broadcast.<BR/><BR/>According to the monitors, however, no shelling of Georgian villages could be heard in the hours before the Georgian bombardment. At least two of the four villages that Georgia has since said were under fire were near the observers’ office in Tskhinvali, and the monitors there likely would have heard artillery fire nearby."<BR/><BR/>Georgia's last argument for its military aggression against civilians and peacekeepers, that its villages were being bombarded, is debunked. They declared a ceasefire, then started a murderous campaign of annihilation without provocation or justification. Thus, OSCE monitors are in agreement with what Russian "propaganda" has been saying all along!<BR/><BR/>The contempt for reality of folks like LR and Lucas are superseded only by their contempt for the lives and well-being of independent non-Westerners.akarlinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08322298490656235467noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24528000.post-52562492070546062582008-11-07T18:14:00.000+00:002008-11-07T18:14:00.000+00:00NICK:Stop lying. The OSCE made NO such conclusion....NICK:<BR/><BR/>Stop lying. The OSCE made NO such conclusion. It simply said, just as HRW has said, that Georgia could have been more careful with its artillery and that the evidence of exactly what occurred is murky.<BR/><BR/>EDWARD:<BR/><BR/>There's no doubt that they could and should be more courageous, but we must take this rascals as we find them. Given their limitations, they're really not doing all that badly. Hopefully, America will soon begin to provide better leadership, and your continued roasting will keep them on their toes.La Russophobehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05672264388217953086noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24528000.post-86047073562170341062008-11-07T16:32:00.000+00:002008-11-07T16:32:00.000+00:00Clearly the jury is still out on the war in Georgi...Clearly the jury is still out on the war in Georgia. In fact just today, the New York times published a story indicating that the usually pro-Atlantic OSCE will likely conclude that Russia was justified in intervening in South Ossetia.<BR/>www.threekingsblog.com<BR/><BR/>So how about we wait for some facts before we resort to demagoguery shall we?Nick Claytonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05739547862137756019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24528000.post-32004845075015346352008-11-05T13:15:00.000+00:002008-11-05T13:15:00.000+00:00What the Brits and the French need to understand, ...What the Brits and the French need to understand, is that as long as there is a deterrent, there is no advantage to military solutions in Europe. Brits may ask themselves, will we really go to war over Lithuania? Well, one: you went to war in Iraq and Afghanistan. <BR/><BR/>And two, you've got it the wrong way around: you should ask yourself, would Russia risk a war with us over Lithuania? <BR/><BR/>Like Estonia and Latvia and Poland and Finland, Lithuania has always been troublesome for any Russian empire that hopes to stay together.<BR/><BR/>Only an Russian unfamiliar with history would ever seek to impose direct rule on Baltic rim countries again. <BR/><BR/>The Lithuanians became part of the Russian empire in the 1790s. And they rebelled in 1831 and 1864 and 1918 and in the 1940s and 1950s and in the 1980s. <BR/><BR/>A military imposition there would only create more headaches for any Russian leadership. For most of history, there has been a locus of power in Poland and Lithuania. They cannot be kept down.<BR/><BR/>I don't think the Russian Federation leadership is that stupid. They feared NATO expansion in the Caucasus because it would internationalize the conflict in Chechnya and adjacent regions. Not to mention their evil plan to control all of Europe's energy supplies.<BR/><BR/>There are political forces in Estonia and other countries that are more that willing to stick their head in the sand and get out of European power politics in return for additional legitimacy and the promise of sustained independence. Russia is waiting and will wait some more for these modern day Kekkonens to win the upper hand. A military scenario, in my mind, seems unlikely.Giustinohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04756707910693785516noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24528000.post-54795592609947261812008-11-05T09:49:00.000+00:002008-11-05T09:49:00.000+00:00Britain is beginning to realize the necessity of s...Britain is beginning to realize the necessity of sucking up to Russia like a little bitch because they realized some rather important things - namely, that they are facing an imminent natural gas and more generally energy supply crunch. It has a trade deficit in consumer goods, and since a few years back in energy; it's main export, financial services, has "problems" (e.g. bad lending to east European banks - lol!). <BR/><BR/>Considering that the trend since 2000 has been rapidly expanding energy prices - a trend which will continue and accelerate as the world encounters increasing shortfalls in oil production - it is not surprising that Britain has seen the folly (or so one hopes) of dealings with certain neo-fascist apartheid and militaristic ultra-nationalistic states in eastern Europe, in favor of a cordial long-term strategic relationship with Russia. <BR/><BR/>That the latter-day Streichers of this world, echoed their Russophobic crypto-fascist sycophants, should decry this means that sane, moral folks can only welcome this development.akarlinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08322298490656235467noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24528000.post-51361273905847329012008-11-04T22:08:00.000+00:002008-11-04T22:08:00.000+00:00Firstly, thanks, Mr. Lucas, for another good and s...Firstly, thanks, Mr. Lucas, for another good and sharp piece (as is your 'The New Cold War'...). Can't imagine anyone else taking such a high-minded position regarding Baltic states in our relations with Russia.<BR/><BR/>It is quite a crucial moment to the Baltic states. Even Russia's military aggression doesn't seem as 'unrealistic' and 'theoretical' as it was, say, in late 90's, despite that today we are members of both NATO and EU. I remember April/May of 2004 as I was cheering in the crowds in Vilnius celebrating the accession to NATO and EU... That time I though that 'finally this is over'. I even gave a short interview to BBC's journalist where apart from other obvious things I also mentioned that our struggles with Russia and its intimidation are over. They for some reason cut it out and didn't show in the actual footage (perhaps because that was 'not necessary' and not enough 'politically correct'). At that time it indeed might have seemed so.<BR/><BR/>Just a few years later we see Georgia being invaded and talks about threats (including military) to Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia taking place even in the most respectable media...<BR/><BR/>It is good, though, that there is another country, slightly bigger and more influential than us Balts - Poland. No matter how annoying it may seem to some (France and Germany in particular, of course), they have to listen to at least something it says. So, Dziekuje bardzo to Poland for its integrity and clear position on EU-Russia relations.<BR/><BR/>To those who say that why they should care of some faraway countries (such as Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia) and pay higher gas bills, I would like to remind that it was NOT Russian oil and gas, NOT indulging to Kremlin's will and NOT short-sighted economic benefits which made EU rich, prosperous and respectful.<BR/><BR/>It was the ability to stand behind common European values, cooperation with allies across the Atlantic and ability to maintain a strict position which made Europe prosperous and stable.<BR/><BR/>All we can hope is that those principles of cooperation, democracy and well-being will eventually prevail over interests of fast profit of companies making deals with Gazprom and Kremlin... I really wish I could hope so.Jonashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02943132014901517092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24528000.post-70221956249211195892008-11-04T22:05:00.000+00:002008-11-04T22:05:00.000+00:00This comment has been removed by the author.Jonashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02943132014901517092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24528000.post-36221467034559424452008-11-04T19:41:00.000+00:002008-11-04T19:41:00.000+00:00Ah, German-Russian rapprochement. That must be the...Ah, German-Russian rapprochement. That must be the key to a peaceful Europe.Giustinohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04756707910693785516noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24528000.post-29413775987972150342008-11-04T16:57:00.000+00:002008-11-04T16:57:00.000+00:00Dear Edward Lucas,I also wrote already about the "...Dear Edward Lucas,<BR/><BR/>I also wrote already about the "greatest geopolical catastrophe of the century" and how it was meant:<BR/><BR/>http://derunbequeme.blogspot.com/2007/05/grte-katastrophe-des-20-jahrhunderts.html<BR/><BR/>I think that making a cornerstone of propaganda out of this statement is malicios foul play.<BR/><BR/>Thanks for invitation, I'll think about it!<BR/><BR/>Regards,<BR/>Der Unbequemeder unbequemehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14278384209527104045noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24528000.post-76106213930521330302008-11-04T16:44:00.000+00:002008-11-04T16:44:00.000+00:00Dear UnbequemePushkov is twisting the facts. I hav...Dear Unbequeme<BR/><BR/>Pushkov is twisting the facts. I have never compared Putin with Hitler. That would be grotesque. Nor do I say that modern Russia is like the Third Reich. What I do say is that the regime's nostalgia for the Soviet period is as unsettling as it would be if a German government described the collapse of the Third Reich as the "geopolitical catastrophe of the century". Its Vergangenheitsbewaeltigung that is missing in modern Russia. <BR/><BR/>I am happy to talk on the phone if you want. my skype is edwardlucas<BR/><BR/>regards<BR/>EdwardEdward Lucashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11369936559712607693noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24528000.post-59866122026995417242008-11-04T16:30:00.000+00:002008-11-04T16:30:00.000+00:00Being anti-kremlin in Soviet times was not neccess...Being anti-kremlin in Soviet times was not neccessary anti-Russian. But today, when there is a high support for the Kremlin line in the Russian population (you know well it is not a fake), being anti-kremlin is also being anti-Russian.<BR/><BR/>Your radical views on different international issues involving Russia are not a consequence of some facts. The far-fetched interpretation which you present as facts is merely a consequence of your Russophobia. Don't mix up the reason and the consequence.<BR/><BR/>And, please, don't compare yourself with Schroeder. Your horizons are quite different. If you had his abilities, experience and connections, who knows who you would work for. It is easy to say "no" if nobody makes an offer, LOL. You work in your small dimension and earn money a according to your humble possibilities in the propaganda sphere. However, it doesn't make you a better person.<BR/><BR/>So, you understand German? In my blog, I have posted a translation of an interview with Alexei Pushkov. The conversation is also about you, maybe it will be of interest:<BR/><BR/>http://derunbequeme.blogspot.com/2008/04/das-feindbild-russland-soll-den-westen.html<BR/><BR/>Enjoy.der unbequemehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14278384209527104045noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24528000.post-59307100401931994442008-11-04T15:57:00.000+00:002008-11-04T15:57:00.000+00:00Dear UnbequemeIf you read my book you will see tha...Dear Unbequeme<BR/><BR/>If you read my book you will see that I am not anti-Russian, but anti-Kremlin. it is one of the many crimes of the chekist regime that they have blotted out the heroic strand of humanism and dissent in Russian history, elevating instead a grotesque nostalgia for the Soviet (and Stalinist) past. It is as if Germany was run by a bunch of former SS and Gestapo guys who denied the holocaust, claimed that the Netherlands and Denmark were not properly independent countries, and manufactured scare stories about "anti-Germanism" to disguise their incompetence, greed and chauvinism.<BR/>Also, anti-semitism is not punishable in the UK or US, where we don't have the tradition of "thought-crimes". <BR/><BR/>Finally, if you think I have made money from anti-kremlin scaremongering, you are sadly mistaken. I have had a consistent position on this since 1989, and nearly bankrupted myself running a newspaper in Tallinn that tried to get these ideas across to a wider audience. The real money is on the pro-Kremlin side, as your former chancellor Schroeder, or Britain Deripaska-friendly bigwigs, will attest<BR/><BR/>cheeers<BR/><BR/>EdwardEdward Lucashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11369936559712607693noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24528000.post-5100944199066715412008-11-04T15:45:00.000+00:002008-11-04T15:45:00.000+00:00@ Lucas"freedom of opinion" has its natural border...@ Lucas<BR/><BR/>"freedom of opinion" has its natural borders. Public Anti-semitism is not freedom of opinion, for example, it is punishable. I consider you a spiritual heir of Joseph Goebbels with the only difference that the Russians have the role of Jews in your scaremongering and agitation.<BR/><BR/>Russophobia is your profession, you make money by writing books and articles, by visiting events. Extremist anti-Russian position is merely your business brand than a position dictated by common sense. You earn money by creating animosities in this world. I think it's disgusting.der unbequemehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14278384209527104045noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24528000.post-59225439456289285322008-11-04T13:20:00.000+00:002008-11-04T13:20:00.000+00:00I wish I could agree with you. It seems to me that...<I>I wish I could agree with you. It seems to me that Germany France and Italy have been scandalously wimpish on the Georgia issue. Italy is probably the worst--vetoing Sarko's initial condemnation.</I><BR/><BR/>But let's not forget that, save Mr. Sarkozy, all of the leaders are in precarious positions.<BR/><BR/>Merkel is in a power-sharing agreement with SDP, Schröder's old party. Her foreign minister is Schröder's former chief of staff. <BR/>Now take another look at her actions. Compare them to Schröder's official statements. Merkel actually seems quite bold.<BR/><BR/>Berlusconi is creating an interesting paradigm in Italian politics. He was criticized <I>from the left</I> for his personal connections to the Russian leadership. <BR/><BR/>The Kremlin's Europe strategy is based on forging close relationships with individual leaders in EU countries. The problem with that strategy is that, unlike in Moscow, these leaders are not political immortals. Berlusconi will eventually leave office and be replaced by someone else.<BR/><BR/>Finally, in the UK Gordon Brown has never been in a strong position as PM. It seems, at least from outside the country, that he is basically stumbling from leadership crisis to leadership crisis until the Brits make up their mind and choose someone else.<BR/><BR/>In this mix, Sarkozy is one of the few confident western European leaders.Giustinohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04756707910693785516noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24528000.post-83505290703422779122008-11-04T13:00:00.000+00:002008-11-04T13:00:00.000+00:00In the past eight years, Russia has:- Paid back hu...In the past eight years, Russia has:<BR/><BR/>- Paid back hundreds of billions of dollars in external government debt<BR/>- Amassed a $500b reserve fund<BR/>- Plus an additional $200b from the stabilization funds<BR/>- Increased government spending many times over (for social programs, defense, whatever)<BR/><BR/>In my opinion, no one can <I>honestly</I> argue that Putin / Medvedev have "stolen from the Russian people" given all of these tangible results.<BR/><BR/>Saudi Arabia, as an analogy, exports more oil than Russia, doesn't have the world's largest borders to defend, and, yet, hasn't been able to establish a $500 billion reserve fund during the period of high oil prices.<BR/><BR/>Nigeria is an even more extreme example.<BR/><BR/>For corruption and theft look at those countries, not Russia.Colleenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12248791977170347491noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24528000.post-18115501849011895992008-11-04T12:42:00.000+00:002008-11-04T12:42:00.000+00:00Thanks for the commentsColleen: Two years ago, the...Thanks for the comments<BR/><BR/>Colleen: Two years ago, the measures I advocated then might have worked better. Now it's too late. I think we can still try to freeze bank accounts and pursue moneylaundering charges. After all, these tens of billions of dollars have been stolen from the Russian people. <BR/><BR/>Der Unbequeme: vielen Dank: Sie haben ganz klar gemacht, wie schnell Kreml-freunde wie Sie Meinungsfreiheit vergessen. Habe ich nicht das Recht, ueber die korrumpierte revanschiste Politik der ex-KGB Fuehrung in Russland zu schreiben, ohne Gefaengnis zu riskieren? Oder finden Sie es gut, dass Regime-kritiker wie Politkovskaya erschossen wurden?<BR/><BR/>[just pointing out that Der U doesn't seem to think much of press freedom. Perhaps that's another reason why he likes the regimein Russia so much<BR/><BR/>LR: I wish I could agree with you. It seems to me that Germany France and Italy have been scandalously wimpish on the Georgia issue. Italy is probably the worst--vetoing Sarko's initial condemnationEdward Lucashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11369936559712607693noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24528000.post-71225537943151443862008-11-04T12:29:00.000+00:002008-11-04T12:29:00.000+00:00So what does Estonia do then? America may offer mo...<I>So what does Estonia do then? America may offer moral support, but is it going to risk a Third World War with Russia to protect Estonia?</I><BR/><BR/>The question should be, is Russia willing to risk a Third World War to invade an adjacent country of 1.3 million people whose chief export is ... wood and paper? <BR/><BR/>The Russians should ask themselves who would win that war? Who would join it to take advantage of Russian weakness? What position would Russia be in should it lose that war? <BR/><BR/><I>Too many of the ingredients are in place and the Kremlin is perfectly capable of cooking them into a dangerous dish.</I><BR/><BR/>The Kremlin cooked that dish in 2007 with the aim of removing the elected Estonian government and replacing it with one more to their liking. They failed. Could it happen again? Anything could happen again. But would it happen in Estonia and why? Why not in Latvia? Why not in Lithuania -- which sits aside Kaliningrad. Same ingredients -- if not more.<BR/><BR/><I>The big question for Estonia and its friends is what can be done to make sure that never happens.</I><BR/><BR/>Two things. First, NATO should show itself to be a real alliance that is capable of defending its members. That's a genuine deterrent. Again, does the RF want to risk a world war over a land of bogs and islands? Probably not.<BR/><BR/>Second, as you mentioned, the regional defense structures should be better integrated. If the Swedes and Finns wish to integrate their navies, they should make the obvious choice to include the Estonians. <BR/><BR/>That would add a very strong, southern dimension to their home defense strategies, and let's not pretend like the Swedish and Finnish defense agencies don't prepare for the big "what if" of another Winter War.Giustinohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04756707910693785516noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24528000.post-83673937459691784022008-11-04T11:45:00.000+00:002008-11-04T11:45:00.000+00:00Stirring the pot on the continent is an old Britis...Stirring the pot on the continent is an old British tradition. Now also practiced by the US (New Europe and all that). Makes perfect sense of course. You can't have geopolitics without geography, after all. It's like that Offspring song "you've gotta keep them separated".So?https://www.blogger.com/profile/08685766312994525903noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24528000.post-60821211367248360932008-11-04T07:19:00.000+00:002008-11-04T07:19:00.000+00:00hmmm, that's interesting.so were Russians "seeding...hmmm, that's interesting.<BR/><BR/>so were Russians "seeding hatred" when they crushed Hitler's armies? is that why Stalin threw 20 million of them into the gulag?<BR/><BR/>with "friends" like you, der unbequeme, russia needs no enemies. in my view, those who "love" and "understand" proud KGB spy Putin hate Russia most of all in the world.La Russophobehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05672264388217953086noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24528000.post-8884356016634018812008-11-04T02:52:00.000+00:002008-11-04T02:52:00.000+00:00Russophobia is not better than Anti-Semitism. I wo...Russophobia is not better than Anti-Semitism. I would not hesitate to throw people like Edward Lucas and La Russophobe into prison for making mischief between peoples and nations. Calumny is a punishable, after all.<BR/><BR/>People who make business out of seeding hatred are scum.der unbequemehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14278384209527104045noreply@blogger.com