The World in 2009

My contribution here...

North stars
Edward Lucas, VISBY
From The World in 2009 print edition


Introducing the Nordic Atlantic Treaty Organisation

Designed to keep the Germans down, the Russians out and the Americans in, NATO will celebrate its 60th birthday in 2009 in a sorry state. Its campaign in Afghanistan is not going well. Its members are at odds about how to deal with Russia. But look north and the European security picture will be brightening.

Sweden and Norway, once prickly friends, are striking up a new defence relationship.

This might look odd: Sweden is non-NATO and a member of the European Union; Norway is a keen member of NATO, but has stayed out of the EU. But now those differences are being set aside. Co-operation on airspace monitoring, combined military procurement, joint training and co-ordinated intelligence work will all be bearing fruit in 2009.

Panting to catch up is Finland, neutral in theory but in practice also spooked by an increasingly assertive Russia. That's clever psychology by the Norwegians and Swedes: Finland would resist if it felt pressured to join in. But it hates being left out of anything its Nordic neighbours get up to. For the core three, 2009 will bring calls for higher defence spending and new efforts to extend Nordic security co-operation to other countries.

The two pressing tasks for the new Nordic security partnership (don’t call it an alliance, or you will get a very chilly Scandinavian scowl) are to work out how to help the Baltic states, and to make plans for what they call the “high north”, the energy-rich area that lies between Europe and the North Pole. The Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) have been full members of NATO since 2004. But the alliance has made no plans to defend them, not wanting to break the taboo on counting Russia as any kind of threat. That will change in 2009, as NATO’s bureaucracy in Brussels works out the practicalities.

But no NATO efforts to defend the Baltics in a crisis make sense without help from Finland and Sweden. As EU members, they will offer political support. And Sweden’s airspace would offer the best way to bring reinforcements if needed. The Baltics will be keen to join in the new Nordic nexus, starting with airspace monitoring.

America is watching the Nordic efforts with increasing interest, as is Canada, once a peace-monger but now deeply alarmed by Russian adventurism in the Arctic. Add Britain for good measure, beef it up a bit, and this could turn into a handy new outfit to deal with the hot­test spots of what some people are calling the new cold war. All it needs is a snappy name. What about the Nordic Atlantic Treaty Organisation?

Norway's security

The High North 

The Arctic contest heats up

Oct 9th 2008 | OSLO 
From The Economist print edition

What is Russia up to in the seas above Europe?

COLD, empty and rich in fish and minerals, the seas of the “High North” are a tempting prize for a big, confident country. Even before the startling news of Vladimir Putin’s offer of a €4 billion ($5.4 billion) emergency loan to Iceland (see article), Russia had been beefing up its presence in a part of the world where the NATO presence is fitful. Although American submarines still ply the northern seas, other NATO vessels are rarely seen. America bruised Icelandic feelings when it pulled out of its Keflavik air base in 2006.

The Kremlin, by contrast, commands a cash pile of over $500 billion and, despite sagging markets in Moscow, is well-placed to assist a country facing bankruptcy. Iceland’s prime minister, Geir Haarde, said that apart from some support from Nordic states, he had received little response to his appeals for help from Western countries. “When our old friends didn’t help us, we had to find new friends,” he declared. What Russia might want in exchange is unclear. But it is unlikely to be nothing.

That highlights worries elsewhere, particularly in Norway, where fighter jets scramble on average once a week to intercept Russian warplanes buzzing close to their country. The Kremlin’s aircraft and ships do not quite break international law. But they commit what a senior official terms “breaches of etiquette”. These have included naval manoeuvres in the midst of Norway’s oil and gas platforms in the North Sea, involving aggressive air sorties that grounded all offshore helicopter flights; that was inconvenient, expensive and dangerous. Also troubling was a mock bombing run against Norway’s northern command centre at Bodo, and at least three other, so far unpublicised, incidents.

Russian planes and ships may be old, but training and upkeep have improved and some of the weapons they carry are increasingly modern, such as a new long-range cruise missile. Some think Russian submarines in the north have been experimenting with the Shkval, a super-fast torpedo that gives Western navies the jitters. “Russia is establishing a new reality in a strategically empty space,” says Jon Bingen, a defence analyst in Oslo.

Legal fuzziness increases Russia’s room for manoeuvre. The “grey zone” off the northern tip of Norway (see map) is claimed by both countries. Another dispute is around the island of Spitsbergen, on which Russia has had mining rights since 1920. Norway says it owns the continental shelf around it. Others, chiefly Russia, don’t agree. Russia is prospecting for minerals beneath the seabed there. Norway objects to that, and to Russian trawlers’ sometimes cavalier behaviour; their on-board electronics can be unusual, too.

Norway is the only old European NATO member bordering Russia. Its military planners are disappointed by their allies’ tepid response to Russian provocation—for instance when a rogue Russian trawler briefly kidnapped Norwegian fishing inspectors in 2005. At stake are not just fish, hydrocarbons and minerals: melting ice means that the Arctic, once largely a dead end, may become a strategic route to East Asia.

How to deal with Russia after its war with Georgia in August has become a key issue for NATO, whose defence ministers met in Budapest on October 9th. America wants the alliance to drop its taboo on making contingency plans to defend members that feel threatened by Russia, such as Estonia. Norway plays down the threat of real conflict. “Unlike some ex-communist countries, we are not hysterical,” an official insists. Indeed, neighbourly relations on border controls and sea safety have survived Russia’s freeze on military contacts with NATO. A Norwegian firm is weighing whether to help exploit the Shtokman offshore gasfield, a showcase investment project for the Kremlin. But even the most sanguine Norwegian officials admit that the “trajectory” in Russia is worrying.

Norway is quietly boosting defence co-operation with Sweden and Finland. And it hopes to “NATO-ise” a big land, sea and air military exercise next spring, named Response. Just what that is responding to is left tactfully unclear.